Category Archives: McCain

Test Two for National Strategy: NH

Well, Team Rudy’s national strategy passed its second test last night.  McCain won, Huck disappointed, and Hizzoner avoided the awkwardness of having the eighth paragraph of NH primary coverage reading “Ron Paul finished strong in the ‘Live Free or Die’ state, edging Giuliani…”

Avoiding early states and planting a flag in FL immediately before Tsunami Tuesday is looking less and less mad every day.

Still, despite this being about as wide-open a GOP primary as I am likely to see in my lifetime, there’s constant talk of candidates needing to drop out, perhaps even before Feb. 5, due to lack of funds.  Last night could have been a mortal blow to Romney.  Thompson is on fumes before his Southern base ever casts a vote.

And without a NH victory, there would have been talk about McCain needing to drop out after only 10% of Iowans and often intentionally mis-registered New Hampshire residents casting malicious ballots have had a chance to vote.  Now instead there’s talk of McCain being the frontrunner. 

I get to vote in April.

Leave a comment

Filed under Giuliani, McCain, New Hampsire Primary, Primaries, Romney, Ron Paul, Rudy, Rudy Giuliani

GOP Delegate Math & PA

Miss me?  Well, I’m back.  And much like Nixon in ’88, I’m tanned, rested, and ready.

It seems the ascension of the Huck– which he may or may not have you believe is Divinely directed— has scrambled every campaign’s electoral math.  McCain thought social conservatives would forget about McCain/Fiengold and give him a boost since he’s been strong on abortion.  Mitt put about 8 million dollars worth of eggs in Iowa, and they’ve rotted prematurely.  Thompson thought he could be the Southern candidate.

And Team Rudy figured a top tier of four candidates and Ron Paul would be crowded enough to diffuse opposition support, but not so crowded that it would keep him from getting a majority of convention delegates with the support of all those big states with just a few smaller ones mixed in.

Well, Huck has ruined all that.  Turns out there are a lot more dissatisfied Red Staters out there with unread copies of Friedman’s “Free to Choose” that seem to dig a cross between Bill Clinton and Huey Long.

What does this mean to humble voters in PA?  Well, it means that I may have to eat my hat.  Our Coelacanth of a primary in the spring may actually mean something.  As this would be a once a generation occurrence– the exception that proved the rule– this does not obviate my criticisms of our silly later primary.  Reform is still necessary.

But the delegate math presented here seems to suggest that not only may all primaries matter in the GOP race in 2008, but we may actually be in for a brokered convention.  Well, it at least isn’t tin-foil hat territory for political geeks like me to start hoping for one.

A brokered convention would be bad, bad news for Giuliani.  His personal platform is, shall we say, a little too quirky to win in that environment, one would think.

It would be fun, though.  It also may be good for the GOP generally, monopolizing all the press coverage for MONTHS while Ms. Clinton (or, less likely, Obama) stuggles to get some attention.  I never thought I’d have to type those words.  Imagine.  A democrat presidential nominee struggling to get attention from the MSM…

So what’s Team Rudy to do?  As much as it pains me to admit it– as to me the entertainment value of a meaningful convention approaches that of a Genesis reunion including Peter Gabriel– he has to get a majority of delegates prior to the convention.  Giuliani is, rightly, the first choice of many GOP voters.  Alas, he is not anyone’s second choice.  Except for maybe my Dad’s.  We are not case studies one would choose if looking for a typical GOP voter.

So Giuliani needs to kill in Florida.  Anyone else noticing all those Florida focused e-mails from the Giuliani campaign, lately?  You know what other state they’re talking about a lot in New York?  South Carolina.  If Rudy kills in FL, and does especially well in SC, he’s off to a good start.

But if he slips in either state, he’s got problems.  He also has problems in CA.  He’ll win the most delegates out of CA on Feb. 5, but CA is also a proportional state, and right now it ain’t shaping up to be a TKO.

Finally, and strangely, it looks like Giuliani’s big mo may need to come out of MO.  Missouri, that is.  MO is a winner take all state on Feb. 5.  Team Rudy is strong there, but not prohibitively.  So here is my prognostication:

If Giuliani wins FL and MO, he will win the nomination.  If not, my primary vote in PA may matter, and we may be in for a fun convention.

What else should be on the top of Team Giuliani’s to do list?  Buttering up John McCain.  Being low on money and long in the tooth, he stands the highest chance of opting out of this mess and retiring from the race.  Of the top tier candidates, he’s the most likely to endorse Giuliani.

Perhaps people should also start explaining to Fred Thompson that the veep slot seems to suit his temperament more than the CEO’s chair…

Leave a comment

Filed under Fred Thompson, Giuliani, McCain, Primaries, Rudy, Rudy Giuliani

Rudy W/in Margin of Error Against Clinton in PA

So’s McCain, as a matter of fact.  I gotta’ give it to John.  Over the summer when it appeared his campaign ran out of money due to anemic fundraising and mismanagement, I was among the many that wrote him off for dead.  Those were the heady days of conservative revolt over immigration reform, too.

In a recent Quinnipiac poll [HT Keystone Politics] both he and Giuliani now trail Clinton by only two points in a hypothetical general election match-up.  Maybe Hillary’s weaselly non-answer re. driver’s licenses for illegals at that debate had some effect on her numbers.  Actually, I thought her pusillanimous yet haughty response at being “bullied” by the big, mean Tim Russert was more embarrassing.

If she thought that was tough, it’s no wonder she’s never accepted an invitation from Limbaugh or Hewitt.

Also, both Ms. Clinton and Rudy are way out ahead in potential primary polling in this one, like always.  No time to read the internals today, so if you can, and find something interesting, please let me know.

PS: There’s a new PA blogger in the blogroll:  Thousand Points of Right.  He’s a retired NYC firefighter and current PA resident who supports the mayor.  At least he says he is.  The internet’s a wild, woolly place!

If you want an antidote to the conspiratorial venom attacking Giuliani from the current firefighter’s labor union, he’s your man.

5 Comments

Filed under Firefighters, Giuliani, Hillary, Hillary Clinton, McCain, PA Bloggers This Site Recommends, Polling, Primaries, Rudy, Rudy Bloggers, Rudy Giuliani

Who is the 2nd choice?

Over at Red State there’s a little discussion going about the dynamics of the GOP primary.  The initial piece theorized that none of the GOP voters supporting 2nd and 3rd tier candidates will select Giuliani as their candidate, so his row will get tougher to hoe as time goes on.

This is just a different way of putting the case that Giuliani benefits from a diffusion of the socially conservative vote.

The question I have is this: What evidence exists that the supporters of Tancredo, Brownback, Hunter, Huckabee, and even McCain do not have Giuliani as their second choice?  It seems to be assumed as impossible, but in PA, for example, we have seen ample polling suggesting evangelical and rural voters like Giuliani just fine.

As I say, people should check the actual data before making assertions.

Leave a comment

Filed under 2nd Amendment, Federalism, Giuliani, McCain, PA Support, Polling, Rudy, Rudy Giuliani, Social Issues

Swing State Quinnipiac Poll Time: Looking like Rudy & Hil

Quinnipiac University does a monthly poll of swing states: PA, OH, and FL.

The big picture?  Hillary and Giuliani appear to remain the favorites for their respective nominations.  Rudy’s matchups w/her in a general election are looking marginally worse.  Still close, but he’s now behind her in all three.  The upside of this?  He’s still way better than all the other GOP candidates.

Vis a vis the GOP race, the big news is this: Giuliani *still* is doing well amongst evangelicals.  He leads amongst them in OH and PA, and comes in second to Fred Thompson in Florida.  I say that’s more a product of the fact that Thompson is Southern than anything else.  It’s easy for us northerners to think of Florida as Miami and Orlando.  Travel around the state, though, and you’ll see many parts are every bit as “southern” as Mississippi.

Also interesting to note is that in hypothetical general election matchups the GOP candidate that comes closest to performing as well as Giuliani is not Romney or Thompson, but McCain. So stay in the game, John!  It’s good for Hizzoner.

Aside:  They seem to like Obama a lot in OH.  It seems it can’t catch a break in the Dem. primary, there, but he’s arguably stronger than Hillary in a general.  Weird.  I guess they just hate the GOP that much.

Consider yourselves warned, Commonwealth GOP leaders in PA.  You guys aren’t all that different….wait….I’m one of those guys, now, since I’m now a ward leader.  Well, at least I’ve warned myself!

1 Comment

Filed under Fred Thompson, Giuliani, Hillary, Hillary Clinton, McCain, PA Support, Polling, Primaries, Romney, Rudy, Rudy Bloggers

PA & Giuliani’s Electability

It would be disingenuous to deny that some of Hizzoner’s appeal lies in his electability.  It is difficult to imagine any other GOP candidate has a better chance at winning a general election.

Of course, the fly in the ointment has always been about his electability in the GOP primary.  Take a look at this map, though: (ht Lead Us Forward)

Repprim.png

This map is based on the most recent polling in various state’s primaries, as they stand right now.

When the math is broken down, Mayor Giuliani would have more than twice as many delegates as his next nearest comeptitor, Fred Thompson.  Romney and McCain would have about one seventh the delegates of Giuliani, with McCain actually beating Romney.

Currently, the Giuliani and Romney campaigns view each other as the primary competition.  I judge this by the e-mail missives sent to pundits from each team’s communication’s apparatus.  Last night the Giuliani campaign sent out nine such e-mails, with five taking digs at Romney and two taking runs at Fred as something of an afterthought.  I am told the Romney campaign is maintaining a similar ratio, just taking jabs at Rudy.

Frankly, though, I find it hard to imagine Romney can overcome these odds.  He’s spent about 10 million dollars to build his lead in IA, and not even he has enough money to do that everywhere else.

This is where PA comes in.  Everyone knows Giuliani is strong in the Northeast.  What other campaign’s must bitterly realize is these are all states where it is really, really expensive to organize and purchase media.  Giuliani’s strength, you’ll see, also lies on the West Coast and upper Midwest (yes, yes, I know these are considered more “liberal”, but you be careful saying that to an Orange County Republican who launched Reagan’s political career).

Thing is, unless some candidate can erode Giuliani’s support in PA, NJ, NY, CA, he may be unstoppable.  Not that those states are enough to win.  But again, they are pricey.  On that terrain it is much less fiscally prohibitive to play defence than offense.

Given this, the Giuliani campaigns electoral bar for the rest of the country may be set about as low as the one set for Fred Thompson at yesterday’s debates.

2 Comments

Filed under Debates, Fred Thompson, Giuliani, McCain, PA Support, Polling, Primaries, Romney, Rudy, Rudy Giuliani

Pure Distilled Quinnipiac PA Goodness

Given my remarks below, I can’t really explain why Clinton is opening up an even bigger lead in PA over Obama in this PA Quinnipiac poll.  Of course, I can’t really explain why we should care about PA primary rankings either, given the fact that the nominees will be working on their convention speeches by the time we vote.

On the GOP side, Giuliani of course is still well in the lead.  It appears Romney may have enjoyed a small bump, but it was actually at the expense of Fred Thompson.  In fact, as it stands now if Romney took ALL the voters away from Thompson AND McCain he would still be almost 10 points behind Giuliani.

In potential general election matchups, the story in PA is the story in all swing states.  Hizzoner is the only potential GOP candidate with a prayer of beating a democrat for the White House.

Leave a comment

Filed under Fred Thompson, Giuliani, Hillary, Hillary Clinton, McCain, PA Support, Polling, Romney, Rudy, Rudy Giuliani