IA Results: They’re Just More Important Than Me

Well, the good voters of IA have caucused, and have selected a moderate evangelical democrat from Hope Arkansas, and an even further left wing cipher.

Now, I generally like organic tradition, a la Russell Kirk.  I also generally like heterogeneity and quirkiness.  It is somewhat refreshing that rural Iowans and grumpy Granite Staters have such a large say in our electoral system, especially since so much of what goes on in this country seems predetermined in some well-funded conference room full of people mildly afraid and hugely disdainful of average Americans.

So from that perspective it is gratifying to find those candidates most obviously designed in those conference rooms– Romney and Clinton– dealt a demoralizing defeat by just those Americans over Swedish meatballs and warm cider in a hundred high school gyms and living rooms in the IA caucuses last night

But…

Why, exactly, should the votes of a few hundred Iowans matter so much to the future of our country?  One is reminded of the famous speech in the movie Bull Durham, which I’ve mentioned here before in a different context, about the difference in baseball between a career minor leaguer and hall of famer being one hit a week.  Should the course of our country be based on such obviously fickle vicissitudes?  A couple family crises and a broken-down bus on the way to a caucus site could have made all the difference last night for any number of candidates.  Now we’re stuck with the withdrawal of Chris Dodd and Joe Biden!

It is well established on this site that I think it is an absurdity verging on a representative miscarriage that the people of Pennsylvania– and many other states– have little say in the presidential primary process.  That miscarriage seems all the more obvious when the two winners out of IA are so similar, and so similarly wrong.

In purely parochial concerns, one of my commenters recently suggested GOP bigwig Bob Asher has been recently spotted genuflecting in Mitt Romney’s direction.  Wouldn’t it be funny if such a consummate insider had to find a way to explain that away because his new favorite candidate never got a chance to even run in PA?

Finally, we should note in this space that last night’s result was pretty much ideal for Giuliani, given the fact that Team Rudy chose to skip IA altogether.  Romney is dealt a huge defeat, and Thompson and McCain do OK, thereby keeping the field wide open.  McCain appears poised to win NH.  SC will be a scramble.  Then FL comes around, where Rudy still polls on top.

It’s white knuckle time over at Team Rudy.  Their “national strategy” is about to be tested.  They’ve been quiet, letting the other candidates spend time, money, and moral capital over two early states with not many delegates at stake.  They plan to plant their flag in FL, then roll up delegates in NJ, NY, CA, and IL on Tsunami Tuesday.

So they have to win FL.  Then on Super Duper Tuesday, if they win MO, they will be in the cat bird seat.  If the Feb. 5 results are more mixed, maybe we will get to cast a vote that matters here in PA.  If Rudy can’t win FL, though, it’s looking like McCain or Huck.  Who knows, though?

More Asher and Rudy Talk

While I was off at a professional conference I missed this ABC story— brought to my attention by Josh at The Morning Call– suggesting that Team Giuliani is trying to square a tricky circle with Bob Asher.

Some people– ahem– suggested months ago that aligning with Asher may be politically necessary, but perhaps less than ideal.  For those who’s memories need refreshing, Asher did time in the big house for his participation in the corruption scandal that make public suicide an attractive option to Bud Dwyer.

Since then, Asher has somewhat rehabilitated his image.  He is still a major PA rainmaker, participating intimately in the Kean, Ridge, Specter, and Bush II organizations.  For a time, it appeared he would have some sort of official role with the Giuliani campaign as well.

Well, it appears the campaign is trying to place some distance between Hizzoner and Asher, which is probably wise, even though it was probably wise for him to solicit Asher’s help in the first place.  One wonders, though.  Giuliani’s popularity has always been high in the Keystone State.  Given this, perhaps Asher’s help could have been less vigorously sought.

Of course, there always something to be said from addition by subtraction.  At least Asher wasn’t out raising money for someone elsewhile he was arranging fundraising events in the Philadelphia suburbs for Giuliani.

SE PA Election Results & the 2008 Prez. Race

The counties surrounding Philadelphia are turning blue, we’re told.  Well, not yet.

Yesterday the county commissioner leadership of Bucks, Montogomery, Chester, and Delaware counties all remained in GOP hands yesterday.  Most judges remain from the GOP.  The Dems had really high hopes.  In a strategy that caused this observer to reach for his copy of the Constitution they thought tying local races to dissatisfaction with Bush/Cheney would finally give them an edge in county governance.

It was not to be, though.  What does this teach us?

It teaches us that if the GOP can manage to run decent candidates, they can succeed in the Philadelphia suburbs.  These counties are close enough now, though, that if the GOP throws up some noticiably corrupt patronage tool, he or she may lose, whereas before the GOP candidate simply had to be drawing breath.

This is all good news for Giuliani in a general election race.  We can say with some certainty that the Demcrat candidate for president will have to at least invest time and money in winning PA.

Of course, it is a shame our primary is so far out that we will have no say at all in nominating either major party candidate.  But at least should it get that far– and one never knows, in high school I thought I’d never see a general election where the winner lost the popular vote– Team Giuliani knows they can count on our Commonwealth’s delegates.

Election Day Tomorrow

Sorry about the radio silence last week.  Sometimes work and other responsibilities have a way of monopolizing my time.

There was some local news of note.  Most prominently the near-endorsement Giuliani received from Philadelphia morning talk bigwig and occasional national pundit Michael Smerconish.  Apparently Michael had the opportunity, under unpleasant circumstances, to get to know Giuliani a little, and found him to be a real mensch in addition to excellent leader.  This could bode well for Hizzoner’s performance in the Philadelphia suburbs.

You almost certainly will not hear from me tomorrow, either.  I will be manning the advocacy gauntlet outside my polling place for the GOP all day.  So if you’re in Phoenixville, stop by Barkley elementary school and learn why you should vote for Greg Hytha for Borough Council.  I may even have some treats to reward people who pick up my election literature and at least do me the solid of throwing it away somewhere else.

Open Primaries

I was looking at a NH poll today showing Mayor Giuliani lagging behind Romney– which was a bummer as Hizzoner had tightened things up there during the last round of polls– and saw that the bulk of independent voters in NH still aren’t sure which primary they’ll vote in.

They get to make that choice as NH has an open primary: You don’t have to be registered as a member of the same party in who’s primary you’d like to cast a ballot.  I think this bodes will for Giuliani.  The GOP race will be more comeptitive, and hence should draw more independent voters.  I bet Giuliani is very strong with that crowd.  I have not seen commentary regarding this.

As a matter of theory I don’t know how I feel about this.  On the one hand, we are a de facto two party system, if not a de jure one.  I used to be a registered libertarian, and one of the main reasons I now am a registered member of the GOP– and now a ward leader– was I became sick of having no voice in the primaries.  It was a real bummer to be unable to cast a ballot against Arlen Specter…

On the other hand, though, political parties are private organizations.  Now, I think it might be difficult for the Dems to restrict their primary to only illegal immigrants, and for the GOP to restrict theirs to men named Cleetus.  Still, as private organizations I instinctively support their rights to handle their affairs however they want.

I do wonder, though, if Giuliani’s fight for the GOP nod would pretty much be fait accompli if all states had open primaries.  It would certainly be the case here in the Commonwealth of PA.

It’s a problem as old as the GOP, actually.  The primaries are the place where minority factions carry the most water.  But does this end up giving us the best possible candidates for a general election?  Ronald Reagans aren’t very commonplace…

Who is the 2nd choice?

Over at Red State there’s a little discussion going about the dynamics of the GOP primary.  The initial piece theorized that none of the GOP voters supporting 2nd and 3rd tier candidates will select Giuliani as their candidate, so his row will get tougher to hoe as time goes on.

This is just a different way of putting the case that Giuliani benefits from a diffusion of the socially conservative vote.

The question I have is this: What evidence exists that the supporters of Tancredo, Brownback, Hunter, Huckabee, and even McCain do not have Giuliani as their second choice?  It seems to be assumed as impossible, but in PA, for example, we have seen ample polling suggesting evangelical and rural voters like Giuliani just fine.

As I say, people should check the actual data before making assertions.

Raising PA Ducats

Mayor Giuliani has raised more money out of Pennsylvania than any other GOP candidate, we learn here.

[Piece by the ever helpful Josh Drobnyk, who continues to kick the big papers’ collective behinds on campaign ’08 coverage, although the HT goes to Keystone Politics]

Hillary has a similar lead over her competition in the state.

The Dems are raising more cash in PA than the GOP, which mirrors national trends.  More interestingly, the margin by which PA Dems are raising more cash over the GOP is even higher in PA than it is in states like NY and CA.  This is a little odd.

Some theorize this indicates PA is getting increasingly solidly “blue”.  I have commented elsewhere that this analysis is simplistic, and ignores a clear data point:  The GOP in PA is particularly dysfunctional.

The grassroots that blow to the right in our Commonwealth increasingly view the PA GOP leadership as an incestuous band of logrollers and featherbedders that more resemble Teamsters than fiscal conservatives when it comes to financial responsibility.  The Highmark merger, irrelevant presidential primary, anemic candidate recruitment, legislative pay-raise hangover, and inability to deal with gambling and property taxes all contribute to internal dissatisfaction here in the GOP.

It’s death by a thousand pin-pricks.  None of these issues, and others I have not mentioned, amounts to much individually.  But most GOP voters in the state don’t have to look hard to find some local GOP politico keyed into the party leadership that acts like a preening self-interested buffoon.

Of course, the climate is similar nationally.  It’s just even worse here, although probably not as bad as it is in, say, Ohio.  This explains why GOP money is staying in modest interest bearing accounts here and all over the country.

That said, the second it becomes official that Mrs. Clinton is the Dem. nominee for the general election and voters have the opportunity to seriously ponder the prospect of being hectored by Mrs. Clinton for four years I bet the purse stings will loosen up.  So I do not think things are as bleak nationally as many others do.  After all, here in PA Giuliani runs tight against Clinton in hypothetical general election polls despite all of the institutional handicaps the GOP brings to the game.

Phil English and Giuliani

Back when I noted Congreeman Phil English’s (R-PA) endorsement of Giuliani I omitted a very important fact of which I was unaware.

Phil English’s rating with the National Right to Life Committee?  100%.

Just sayin’.

Swing State Quinnipiac Poll Time: Looking like Rudy & Hil

Quinnipiac University does a monthly poll of swing states: PA, OH, and FL.

The big picture?  Hillary and Giuliani appear to remain the favorites for their respective nominations.  Rudy’s matchups w/her in a general election are looking marginally worse.  Still close, but he’s now behind her in all three.  The upside of this?  He’s still way better than all the other GOP candidates.

Vis a vis the GOP race, the big news is this: Giuliani *still* is doing well amongst evangelicals.  He leads amongst them in OH and PA, and comes in second to Fred Thompson in Florida.  I say that’s more a product of the fact that Thompson is Southern than anything else.  It’s easy for us northerners to think of Florida as Miami and Orlando.  Travel around the state, though, and you’ll see many parts are every bit as “southern” as Mississippi.

Also interesting to note is that in hypothetical general election matchups the GOP candidate that comes closest to performing as well as Giuliani is not Romney or Thompson, but McCain. So stay in the game, John!  It’s good for Hizzoner.

Aside:  They seem to like Obama a lot in OH.  It seems it can’t catch a break in the Dem. primary, there, but he’s arguably stronger than Hillary in a general.  Weird.  I guess they just hate the GOP that much.

Consider yourselves warned, Commonwealth GOP leaders in PA.  You guys aren’t all that different….wait….I’m one of those guys, now, since I’m now a ward leader.  Well, at least I’ve warned myself!

PA & Giuliani’s Electability

It would be disingenuous to deny that some of Hizzoner’s appeal lies in his electability.  It is difficult to imagine any other GOP candidate has a better chance at winning a general election.

Of course, the fly in the ointment has always been about his electability in the GOP primary.  Take a look at this map, though: (ht Lead Us Forward)

This map is based on the most recent polling in various state’s primaries, as they stand right now.

When the math is broken down, Mayor Giuliani would have more than twice as many delegates as his next nearest comeptitor, Fred Thompson.  Romney and McCain would have about one seventh the delegates of Giuliani, with McCain actually beating Romney.

Currently, the Giuliani and Romney campaigns view each other as the primary competition.  I judge this by the e-mail missives sent to pundits from each team’s communication’s apparatus.  Last night the Giuliani campaign sent out nine such e-mails, with five taking digs at Romney and two taking runs at Fred as something of an afterthought.  I am told the Romney campaign is maintaining a similar ratio, just taking jabs at Rudy.

Frankly, though, I find it hard to imagine Romney can overcome these odds.  He’s spent about 10 million dollars to build his lead in IA, and not even he has enough money to do that everywhere else.

This is where PA comes in.  Everyone knows Giuliani is strong in the Northeast.  What other campaign’s must bitterly realize is these are all states where it is really, really expensive to organize and purchase media.  Giuliani’s strength, you’ll see, also lies on the West Coast and upper Midwest (yes, yes, I know these are considered more “liberal”, but you be careful saying that to an Orange County Republican who launched Reagan’s political career).

Thing is, unless some candidate can erode Giuliani’s support in PA, NJ, NY, CA, he may be unstoppable.  Not that those states are enough to win.  But again, they are pricey.  On that terrain it is much less fiscally prohibitive to play defence than offense.

Given this, the Giuliani campaigns electoral bar for the rest of the country may be set about as low as the one set for Fred Thompson at yesterday’s debates.