New Destination: PA for Uncommitted Delegates

I have decided the following:  This blog will keep its identity, and it is where the post-mortem on Hizzoner’s campaign will appear.

For continued information on the effort to take back our representational democracy from an asinine primary system, enjoy the giggles and halogen light of PA for Uncommitted Delegates.

Keep up the good fight, don’t take any wooden nickles, and remain certain that even Romney or McCain is better than Hillary or Obama.  Now as for the case that a Clinton or Obama administration would be better for conservative governance in the long term, well that’s a whole ‘nother article [as Nordlinger would say]…

Would it Were So

Well, it looks like the entire city of Miami could have absentee voted for Hizzoner, and he wouldn’t have won.

Thanks be to the Lord that the voters of IA, NH, SC, WY, MI, NV, and FL are so much smarter than the rest of us.

They are, right?

Bye the bye, there were will a few post-mortem postings here, then this blog will be redesigned.  It will become “PA for Uncommitted”.  If everyone in PA who preferred Thompson, Giuliani, and probably Huckabee were to vote for Mr./Ms. Uncommitted, I’m sure s/he would win.

In the fullness of time I will explain to you why that is a good idea.

Chester County GOP Committee Meeting; Rudy, McCain, and Romney

There were some Mitt folks at the Chester County GOP endorsement meeting last night.  Some McCain folks as well.

Alas, there were no Rudy people.

I guess every single person on the campaign is currently getting a sunburned face in the Sunshine State.  Many polls have Hizzoner slipping there, but some still have him strong, including a recent Rassmussen poll.  

Also, early voting is huge in FL, not just for folks that are out of town, but for folks for whom a trip to a polling place is something of a chore.  When most of those votes were cast Hizzoner had a dominating lead in the polls.  Current polling does not take this into account.  Conventional wisdom seems to be that Rudy is in trouble.  It would be dishonest to say that is entirely untrue, but this pundit thinks that is an underestimation.

I chatted last night with my retiring State Rep. Carol Rubley.  She remembered I cared about moving up the primary, and pointed out that ours might matter after all.  I pointed out that this presidential race is as competitive as it gets, and the liklihood of our primary mattering is still miniscule.

As an aside, please feel free to e-mail me if you have any interest in supporting Guy Ciarrocchi [no web site yet] as he runs for her seat, or Admiral Steve Kantrowitz as he takes on Andy Dinniman.  Rubley and Dinniman, by the way, were both people with fairly casual views about how important it is for you to cast a presidential primary vote that matters.

The e-mail, again, is karlub at yahoo dot com.

If You Care, Open Up The Wallet

Well, if you care about your primary vote counting in PA, it is time to open up your wallet and give Team Giuliani some cash for FL and Tsunami Tuesday.

Link here!

 Give early, give often.

Calling all SE PA Volunteers

I’m working on putting together some road trips to do a little retail politicking for the Tsunami Tuesday primaries in Delaware and New Jersey. Southern part of the state for the latter.

Wanna’ help?  Enjoy the laugh a minute hilarity of retail politics?

If so, e-mail me at karlub at yahoo dot com.

Test Two for National Strategy: NH

Well, Team Rudy’s national strategy passed its second test last night.  McCain won, Huck disappointed, and Hizzoner avoided the awkwardness of having the eighth paragraph of NH primary coverage reading “Ron Paul finished strong in the ‘Live Free or Die’ state, edging Giuliani…”

Avoiding early states and planting a flag in FL immediately before Tsunami Tuesday is looking less and less mad every day.

Still, despite this being about as wide-open a GOP primary as I am likely to see in my lifetime, there’s constant talk of candidates needing to drop out, perhaps even before Feb. 5, due to lack of funds.  Last night could have been a mortal blow to Romney.  Thompson is on fumes before his Southern base ever casts a vote.

And without a NH victory, there would have been talk about McCain needing to drop out after only 10% of Iowans and often intentionally mis-registered New Hampshire residents casting malicious ballots have had a chance to vote.  Now instead there’s talk of McCain being the frontrunner. 

I get to vote in April.

IA Results: They’re Just More Important Than Me

Well, the good voters of IA have caucused, and have selected a moderate evangelical democrat from Hope Arkansas, and an even further left wing cipher.

Now, I generally like organic tradition, a la Russell Kirk.  I also generally like heterogeneity and quirkiness.  It is somewhat refreshing that rural Iowans and grumpy Granite Staters have such a large say in our electoral system, especially since so much of what goes on in this country seems predetermined in some well-funded conference room full of people mildly afraid and hugely disdainful of average Americans.

So from that perspective it is gratifying to find those candidates most obviously designed in those conference rooms– Romney and Clinton– dealt a demoralizing defeat by just those Americans over Swedish meatballs and warm cider in a hundred high school gyms and living rooms in the IA caucuses last night

But…

Why, exactly, should the votes of a few hundred Iowans matter so much to the future of our country?  One is reminded of the famous speech in the movie Bull Durham, which I’ve mentioned here before in a different context, about the difference in baseball between a career minor leaguer and hall of famer being one hit a week.  Should the course of our country be based on such obviously fickle vicissitudes?  A couple family crises and a broken-down bus on the way to a caucus site could have made all the difference last night for any number of candidates.  Now we’re stuck with the withdrawal of Chris Dodd and Joe Biden!

It is well established on this site that I think it is an absurdity verging on a representative miscarriage that the people of Pennsylvania– and many other states– have little say in the presidential primary process.  That miscarriage seems all the more obvious when the two winners out of IA are so similar, and so similarly wrong.

In purely parochial concerns, one of my commenters recently suggested GOP bigwig Bob Asher has been recently spotted genuflecting in Mitt Romney’s direction.  Wouldn’t it be funny if such a consummate insider had to find a way to explain that away because his new favorite candidate never got a chance to even run in PA?

Finally, we should note in this space that last night’s result was pretty much ideal for Giuliani, given the fact that Team Rudy chose to skip IA altogether.  Romney is dealt a huge defeat, and Thompson and McCain do OK, thereby keeping the field wide open.  McCain appears poised to win NH.  SC will be a scramble.  Then FL comes around, where Rudy still polls on top.

It’s white knuckle time over at Team Rudy.  Their “national strategy” is about to be tested.  They’ve been quiet, letting the other candidates spend time, money, and moral capital over two early states with not many delegates at stake.  They plan to plant their flag in FL, then roll up delegates in NJ, NY, CA, and IL on Tsunami Tuesday.

So they have to win FL.  Then on Super Duper Tuesday, if they win MO, they will be in the cat bird seat.  If the Feb. 5 results are more mixed, maybe we will get to cast a vote that matters here in PA.  If Rudy can’t win FL, though, it’s looking like McCain or Huck.  Who knows, though?

Campaign Looking for DE Volunteers

Got an e-mail yesterday from someone with the campaign looking for PA volunteers to work DE in anticipation of their Tsunami Tuesday primary.  I plan on volunteering, but I am somewhat bemused that they think it’s a good idea to start pounding the pavement and calling people at home the week before Christmas.

I know it seems like the primary is right on top of us.  We’ve been talking about this election for a coon’s age, and we’re now coming up on some actual voting.  Seems to me, though, they have over a month to cover all of DE without hassling people during Christmas.

If other candidates are doing it, I would instead send out a piece of direct mail wishing GOP voters a Merry Christmas, and warning them they’ll probably hear from the campaign in the New Year.  After all, DE polls are pretty thin on the ground, but all the ones I can find indicate Team Rudy has the inside line on those 23 ”winner take all” delegates.

I know every delegate counts, but still…

UPDATE: At least one Delaware paper is backing Giuliani:  The Foster Daily Democrat’s endorsement is here.  For today only!  PA for Hizzoner is now DE for Hizzoner.

Seriously, I have no idea what that endorsement does or doesn’t mean.  My knowledge of the First State’s media landscape is pretty sketchy.  That said, I’ve always been a fan of this plucky underdog of a state, and an admirer of their fiscal policy.  It’s true:  I’ve purchased more than one big ticket item at the big box stores right across the border to avoid sales tax.

More Asher and Rudy Talk

While I was off at a professional conference I missed this ABC story– brought to my attention by Josh at The Morning Call– suggesting that Team Giuliani is trying to square a tricky circle with Bob Asher.

Some people– ahem– suggested months ago that aligning with Asher may be politically necessary, but perhaps less than ideal.  For those who’s memories need refreshing, Asher did time in the big house for his participation in the corruption scandal that make public suicide an attractive option to Bud Dwyer.

Since then, Asher has somewhat rehabilitated his image.  He is still a major PA rainmaker, participating intimately in the Kean, Ridge, Specter, and Bush II organizations.  For a time, it appeared he would have some sort of official role with the Giuliani campaign as well.

Well, it appears the campaign is trying to place some distance between Hizzoner and Asher, which is probably wise, even though it was probably wise for him to solicit Asher’s help in the first place.  One wonders, though.  Giuliani’s popularity has always been high in the Keystone State.  Given this, perhaps Asher’s help could have been less vigorously sought.

Of course, there always something to be said from addition by subtraction.  At least Asher wasn’t out raising money for someone elsewhile he was arranging fundraising events in the Philadelphia suburbs for Giuliani.

GOP Delegate Math & PA

Miss me?  Well, I’m back.  And much like Nixon in ’88, I’m tanned, rested, and ready.

It seems the ascension of the Huck– which he may or may not have you believe is Divinely directed– has scrambled every campaign’s electoral math.  McCain thought social conservatives would forget about McCain/Fiengold and give him a boost since he’s been strong on abortion.  Mitt put about 8 million dollars worth of eggs in Iowa, and they’ve rotted prematurely.  Thompson thought he could be the Southern candidate.

And Team Rudy figured a top tier of four candidates and Ron Paul would be crowded enough to diffuse opposition support, but not so crowded that it would keep him from getting a majority of convention delegates with the support of all those big states with just a few smaller ones mixed in.

Well, Huck has ruined all that.  Turns out there are a lot more dissatisfied Red Staters out there with unread copies of Friedman’s “Free to Choose” that seem to dig a cross between Bill Clinton and Huey Long.

What does this mean to humble voters in PA?  Well, it means that I may have to eat my hat.  Our Coelacanth of a primary in the spring may actually mean something.  As this would be a once a generation occurrence– the exception that proved the rule– this does not obviate my criticisms of our silly later primary.  Reform is still necessary.

But the delegate math presented here seems to suggest that not only may all primaries matter in the GOP race in 2008, but we may actually be in for a brokered convention.  Well, it at least isn’t tin-foil hat territory for political geeks like me to start hoping for one.

A brokered convention would be bad, bad news for Giuliani.  His personal platform is, shall we say, a little too quirky to win in that environment, one would think.

It would be fun, though.  It also may be good for the GOP generally, monopolizing all the press coverage for MONTHS while Ms. Clinton (or, less likely, Obama) stuggles to get some attention.  I never thought I’d have to type those words.  Imagine.  A democrat presidential nominee struggling to get attention from the MSM…

So what’s Team Rudy to do?  As much as it pains me to admit it– as to me the entertainment value of a meaningful convention approaches that of a Genesis reunion including Peter Gabriel– he has to get a majority of delegates prior to the convention.  Giuliani is, rightly, the first choice of many GOP voters.  Alas, he is not anyone’s second choice.  Except for maybe my Dad’s.  We are not case studies one would choose if looking for a typical GOP voter.

So Giuliani needs to kill in Florida.  Anyone else noticing all those Florida focused e-mails from the Giuliani campaign, lately?  You know what other state they’re talking about a lot in New York?  South Carolina.  If Rudy kills in FL, and does especially well in SC, he’s off to a good start.

But if he slips in either state, he’s got problems.  He also has problems in CA.  He’ll win the most delegates out of CA on Feb. 5, but CA is also a proportional state, and right now it ain’t shaping up to be a TKO.

Finally, and strangely, it looks like Giuliani’s big mo may need to come out of MO.  Missouri, that is.  MO is a winner take all state on Feb. 5.  Team Rudy is strong there, but not prohibitively.  So here is my prognostication:

If Giuliani wins FL and MO, he will win the nomination.  If not, my primary vote in PA may matter, and we may be in for a fun convention.

What else should be on the top of Team Giuliani’s to do list?  Buttering up John McCain.  Being low on money and long in the tooth, he stands the highest chance of opting out of this mess and retiring from the race.  Of the top tier candidates, he’s the most likely to endorse Giuliani.

Perhaps people should also start explaining to Fred Thompson that the veep slot seems to suit his temperament more than the CEO’s chair…